双雷达风场反演拼图在登陆台风“莫兰蒂”(1614)强降水精细预报中的同化应用试验   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王叶红  赵玉春  罗昌荣  韩颂雨 《气象学报》2019,77(4):617-644

利用福建龙岩、漳州、泉州新一代多普勒天气雷达和厦门海沧双偏振雷达探测资料,采用动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演与拼图技术,基于天气研究和预报模式（Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF）及其资料同化系统,对登陆台风“莫兰蒂”（1614）引起的2016年9月14—15日福建强降水过程进行了双雷达风场反演拼图资料检验及其三维变分同化对强降水精细预报影响的数值试验,结果发现:（1）动态地球坐标系下双雷达反演风场能合理反映实际风场分布状况,其误差相对较小。相较厦门翔安风廓线雷达及厦门探空秒级测风数据,反演风风向（风速）平均绝对误差分别为7.8°（2.6 m/s）及3.4°（1.1 m/s）;（2）反演风场水平方向稀疏化对同化及预报结果极为重要,过密的反演风场资料会给同化及预报结果带来负效果。文中采用18、6、2 km 3重嵌套,在3重嵌套区域均进行同化以及仅在2 km区域进行同化两种情况下,均表现为当反演风场资料水平分辨率提高到0.1°时,同化分析及预报的台风环流开始受到负影响;且当反演风场资料水平分辨率越高时,负效果越明显。敏感性试验结果显示,分辨率取0.2°时数值预报效果最好;（3）以美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System,NCEP/GFS）0.5°×0.5°分析场为初值,基于3个不同起报时刻（2016年9月14日14时、20时及15日02时）（北京时,下同）模拟的福建省境内台风内核雨带和螺旋雨带逐时演变、台风路径与强度、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关差异显著,其中14日14时起报试验效果最好;而14日20时起报试验效果最差,这与该试验初始台风大风轴风速明显偏大有关;（4）在上述3个不同起报时刻试验基础上,分别增加双雷达反演风场资料的三维变分同化后,福建境内地面风场和台风内核雨带、螺旋雨带逐时分布、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关、台风环流结构以及U、V风垂直廓线分布均有明显改善,最大正影响时效可达24 h;但仅对1—6 h时效内台风路径有改善。   相似文献   

基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报     

牛若芸 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):721-731

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。   相似文献   

内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件环流演变特征及季节预测信号     

高涛  乌兰  司瑶冰  关彦如  杨泽龙  任晓萌  张晓梅 《内蒙古气象》2019,(1):3-8,I0002

文章研究关注了内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件的季节预测问题,在对大量降水观测资料、海温及大气环流场资料进行统计、分析、研究的基础上,确定了历史上58a(1960—2017年)内蒙古冬季极端多雪和少雪气候事件样本,通过对大气环流场的对比分析发现极端多雪或少雪冬季环流场特征显著不同,分析后确定了影响内蒙古冬季降雪的主要环流系统,包括西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、东亚大槽、环流E型及南方涛动等系统。同时,探索了对这些主要环流系统具有预测意义的来自海洋和大气场的预测信号,对预测信号关键区做了标准化定量提取,确定了预测信号综合指数分段判别阈值,给出了预测概念模型,取得了较好预测效果。  相似文献   

EFFECTS OF SPRING SOIL MOISTURE IN THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS: A SIMULATION STUDY FOR 1999     

李江南  游家兴  李芳洲  毛江玉 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(2):211-226

Using the regional climate model RegCM4.4.5, coupled with the land model CLM4.5, we investigated the effects of springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula on summer precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in 1999. Results have indicated that there exists positive correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean and negative correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the eastern Indian Ocean. Summer precipitation in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas responds to springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula (the northwest region is critical) because general atmospheric circulation is sensitive to the near-surface thermodynamic state. Increased (decreased) soil moisture would result in decreased (increased) local surface temperatures. Latitudinal, small-scale land–sea thermal differences would then result in northeasterly wind (southwesterly wind) anomalies in the upper layer and southwesterly wind (northeasterly wind) anomalies in the lower layer, which strengthen (weaken) monsoon development. As a result, precipitation would enter the Western Pacific region earlier (later), and water vapor over the eastern Indian Ocean would enter the South China Sea earlier (later), causing a precipitation reduction (increase) in the eastern Indian Ocean and increase (reduction) in the Western Pacific.  相似文献   

利用扫描电镜-电子探针研究四川杨柳坪镍铜硫化物矿床铂钯的赋存状态及沉淀机制   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

戴婕  徐金沙  杜谷  王坤阳 《岩矿测试》2015,34(2):161-168

本文利用电子探针和配备能谱分析功能的扫描电镜对四川杨柳坪镍-铜硫化物矿床中铂钯的赋存状态进行了研究。结果表明,铂以独立矿物相砷铂矿和自然铂存在;钯以碲化物、碲铋化物、碲锑化物、锑化物及自然钯独立矿物相存在,也以类质同象形式分布在碲镍矿中(钯含量约10%),另外还以锑铋钯碲矿、六方锑碲钯矿、碲钯矿独立矿物相存,并以类质同象形式分布在Vavrinite(钯含量5%)和砷铂矿(钯含量1%~5%)中。杨柳坪矿床中铂钯元素沉淀与贱金属矿物(BMS)及晚期热液蚀变矿物蛇纹石、方解石密切相关,其沉淀经历了3个阶段:1早期高温阶段(1200~900℃),铂钯元素沉淀并包裹在BMS中;2中期中高温阶段(650~250℃),分离结晶作用使铂钯元素沉淀并分布BMS矿物的边部,同时该阶段热液来源的铂钯元素沉淀于BMS粒间;3晚期热液蚀变阶段(500~300℃),热液蚀变作用引起铂钯元素沉淀在蚀变矿物中或嵌布在BMS裂隙。本文研究成果为认识该矿床及同类型镍-铜硫化物矿床的铂钯成矿过程提供了新的依据。  相似文献   

广西乐业泥盆系—石炭系沉积碳酸盐岩脉及地震事件沉积的新发现     

彭阳  陆刚 《地质论评》2015,61(2):281-287

广西右江盆地发育多个孤立碳酸盐岩台地,在各台地边缘广泛发育同沉积断层及沉积碳酸盐岩脉,常常发育地震事件记录。在广西乐业台地边缘上泥盆统融县组鲕粒灰岩、藻粘结灰岩等地层中新识别出多条晚泥盆世沉积灰岩脉:玛瑙纹状灰岩脉、白云岩脉、微晶灰岩脉及藻灰岩脉等,新识别出早石炭世海百合茎灰岩脉(内部结构呈高密度颗粒流状新类型),同时观察到同沉积断层及同生角砾岩、层内断错及原地震裂岩等,为沉积碳酸盐岩脉的成因提供新的证据,同时表明在乐业台地边缘,至少有两次同沉积正断层的活动,一次发生在晚泥盆世,诱发了脉及围岩均为晚泥盆世融县期的沉积碳酸盐岩脉、层内断错及原地震裂岩;一次发生在早石炭世,诱发的脉为早石炭世尧云岭期,围岩为上泥盆统融县组的沉积灰岩脉及伴生角砾岩。展示了在广西右江盆地发生张裂背景下,乐业台地边缘同沉积正断层活动,诱发地震事件,同时伴生张裂隙,即沉积灰岩脉的构造-沉积过程,是广西右江盆地在晚古生代伸展过程的历史记录。  相似文献   

武都万象洞方解石现代沉积体系δ~(18)O值月变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白晓  桑文翠  李丰山  张德忠 《地球化学》2015,44(3):245-253

万象洞所在地大气降水同位素值年内波动较大,变化起止时间存在显著的年际差异。观测期内,武都降水同位素δD-δ18O组合特征与周边城市降水同位素多年平均值重建的区域降水雨水线基本重合,洞穴所在地区降水同位素具有很好的区域代表性。洞穴滴水同位素值年内变化幅度较小,基本反映了当地大气降水同位素值的月加权平均水平。洞穴次生碳酸盐与洞穴滴水之间符合同位素平衡分馏基本规律。季节尺度上,不同监测点滴水及次生碳酸盐δ18O值因受地下水混合作用强弱差异及洞穴温度的小幅变化等影响而略有差异;年际变化上,夏季风爆发前后降雨量的权重及爆发时间的早晚对洞穴滴水-碳酸盐体系同位素水平存在一定的影响。万象洞洞穴滴水、石笋氧同位素信号在年代际尺度上可以很好地指示区域内大气降水的同位素变化特征。  相似文献   

Response and recovery of the Comanche carbonate platform surrounding multiple Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events,northern Gulf of Mexico     

《Cretaceous Research》2015

The ubiquity of carbonate platforms throughout the Cretaceous Period is recognized as a product of high eustatic sea-level and a distinct climatic optimum induced by rapid sea-floor spreading and elevated levels of atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Notably, a series of global oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) punctuate this time-interval and mark periods of significantly reduced free oxygen in the world's oceans. The best records of these events are often from one-dimensional shelf or basin sections where only abrupt shifts between oxygenated carbonates and anoxic shales are recorded. The Comanche Platform of central Texas provides a unique opportunity to study these events within a well-constrained stratigraphic framework in which their up-dip and down-dip sedimentologic effects can be observed and the recovery of the platform to equilibrium states can be timed and understood. Stable isotope data from whole cores in middle Hauterivian through lower Campanian mixed carbonate-siliciclastic strata are used to construct a 52-myr carbon isotope reference profile for the northern Gulf of Mexico. Correlation of this composite curve to numerous global reference profiles permits identification of several anoxic events and allows their impact on platform architecture and facies distribution to be documented. Oceanic anoxic events 1a, 1b, 1d, and 2 occurred immediately before, after, or during shale deposition in the Pine Island Member, Bexar Member, Del Rio Formation, and Eagle Ford Group, respectively. Oceanic anoxic event 3 corresponds to deposition of the Austin Chalk Group. Platform drowning on three occasions more closely coincided with globally recognized anoxic sub-events such as the Fallot, Albian-Cenomanian, and Mid-Cenomanian events. This illustrates that the specific anoxic event most affecting a given carbonate platform varied globally as a function of regional oceanographic circumstances.Using chemo- and sequence-stratigraphic observations, a four-stage model is proposed to describe the changing facies patterns, fauna, sedimentation accumulation rates, platform architectures, and relative sea-level trends of transgressive-regressive composite sequences that developed in response to global carbon-cycle perturbations. The four phases of platform evolution include the equilibrium, crisis, anoxic, and recovery stages. The equilibrium stage is characterized by progradational shelf geometries and coral-rudist phototrophic faunal assemblages. Similar phototrophic fauna typify the crisis stage; however, incipient biocalcification crises of this phase led to retrogradational shelf morphologies, transgressive facies patterns, and increased clay mineral proportions. Anoxic stages of the Comanche Platform were coincident with back-ground deposition of organic-rich shale on drowned shelves and heterotrophic fauna dominated by oysters or coccolithophorids. Eustatic peaks of this stage were of moderate amplitude (∼30 m), yet relative sea-level rises were greatly enhanced by reduced sedimentation rates. In the recovery stage, heterotrophic carbonate factories re-established at the shoreline as progradational ramp systems and sediment accumulation rates slowly increased as dysoxia diminished. Full recovery to equilibrium conditions may or may not have followed. Geochemical and stratigraphic trends present in the four stages are consistent with increased volcanism along mid-ocean ridges and in large-igneous provinces as primary drivers of Cretaceous OAEs and the resulting transgressive-regressive composite sequences.  相似文献   

孟加拉湾超级风暴费林对西藏强降水的影响分析     

德庆  徐珺  宗志平  赤曲  罗布坚参  代华光 《气象》2015,41(9):1086-1094

利用NCEP/NCAR(2.5°×2.5°)再分析资料和常规、非常规观测资料,通过环境场和中尺度特征较全面细致地分析了孟加拉湾风暴费林（Phailin）对西藏特大暴雪的影响。研究表明：“费林”对强降水的影响主要是登陆减弱为低压后,低压云系分两个阶段形成三个中尺度对流云团,对流云团在南支槽的作用下上高原。而强降水的发生和南风风速的大小有直接的对应关系,西南低空急流建立后西藏南部才出现强降水,而低空急流的建立是靠南支槽的贡献。南风风速和强降水的这一重要关系为此类天气提供了预报着眼点。  相似文献   

“频率匹配法”在集合降水预报中的应用研究   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

李俊  杜钧  陈超君 《气象》2015,41(6):674-684

基于“频率匹配法”的思路,采用两种方法进行了集合降水预报的订正研究,一种方法是利用集合成员降水频率订正简单集合平均平滑效应的“概率匹配平均”法,另一种方法是利用实况降水频率订正集合成员降水预报系统偏差的“预报偏差订正”法,通过个例和批量试验,结果表明:(1)概率匹配平均法可以矫正简单集合平均的平滑作用所造成的小量级降水分布范围增大而强降水被削弱的负作用,这种改进对强降水区更显著,并且集合系统离散度越大这种改进也越大;但该方法对预报区域内总降水量的预报没有改进作用,不能改善预报的系统性偏差.(2)虽然预报偏差订正法对降水落区预报的改进有限,但可以订正模式降水预报的系统性误差,改进雨量预报以及集合预报系统的离散度特征和概率预报技巧;直接对集合平均预报进行偏差订正的效果优于单个成员偏差订正后的简单算术平均.(3)在对每个集合成员的降水预报进行偏差订正后,概率匹配平均仍可改善其简单平均的效果,因此在实际业务中,应该综合采用上述两种方法,以获得在消除系统性偏差的同时各量级降水分布又合理的集合平均降水预报.  相似文献